热轧卷板：维持震荡偏强观点

现货价格：昨日热轧卷板Q235B4.75mm乐从价格为4020元/吨，环比+10元/吨；天津价格为3910元/吨，环比持平；上海价格为4080元/吨，环比+10元/吨。乐从与天津热卷价差110元/吨；乐从与上海热卷价差-60元/吨；上海与天津热卷价差170元/吨。上海地区冷热价差420元/吨；卷螺差380元/吨。

成本利润：华北地区国营钢厂热轧卷板成本3818元/吨，利润92元/吨。

产量：截止8月13日，钢联周度数据显示热卷产量335.6万吨，周环比+0.91万吨；冷轧产量80.3万吨，环比+0.57万吨。

库存与表需：热卷表观需求环比+9.78万吨至339.8万吨；热卷总库存环比-4.21万吨至388.5万吨；冷轧表观需求环比+0.86万吨至80.2万吨；冷轧总库存环比+0.1万吨至146.1万吨。

基差：乐从热卷主力合约基差70元/吨，上海热卷主力合约基差130元/吨。

行情预判：本周热卷表需环比明显上升，库存由增转降，上海、乐从等地库存持续下降，同时整体库存水平不高，矿价大幅拉涨，成本上移，热卷利润收缩限制产量释放。海外复产复工推进，美国需求加快恢复，提振热卷需求。预计热卷整体延续震荡偏强。
来源：广发期货

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